Get ready for a box office showdown! Can Amazon MGM's Mercy finally dethrone Avatar? After last week's predicted challenger fell short, all eyes are on this sci-fi thriller to claim the top spot. But here's where it gets interesting: Mercy, starring Chris Pratt and Rebecca Ferguson, is aiming for a Minority Report-esque vibe, but early reviews are lukewarm. Will its high-concept appeal and IMAX/3D screenings be enough to overcome the critics? And this is the part most people miss: the NFL playoffs and a massive winter storm could keep audiences at home, potentially impacting the entire weekend's performance.
January 21, 2026
By Shawn Robbins
This analysis is also available in the Box Office Theory Substack newsletter.
Amazon MGM's Mercy is projected to debut with a solid $8–13 million, according to Box Office Theory, though traditional studio tracking leans higher at $13 million+. Meanwhile, Fathom Entertainment's 25th-anniversary re-release of The Lord of the Rings trilogy continues its strong run, expected to pull in $3.5–6.5 million after a stellar $8.2 million opening weekend. Return to Silent Hill, despite its cult following, may struggle to break through with limited marketing, forecasting $1–3 million.
Key Insights:
- Mercy banks on star power and a sci-fi crime thriller premise, but its 30% Rotten Tomatoes score suggests it’s not a critic’s darling. Pre-sales are slightly ahead of last year’s Flight Risk, though external factors like the NFL playoffs and a winter storm across 35+ states could dampen turnout.
- The Lord of the Rings trilogy’s extended editions are celebrating their 25th anniversary, with The Fellowship of the Ring leading the charge in its second weekend. Fan pre-sales remain strong, but will the weather and sports competition affect its momentum?
- Return to Silent Hill targets video game and horror fans, but its niche appeal and limited promotion might cap its box office potential.
Weekend Forecast:
The top 10 films are expected to gross over $51 million, down 3% from 2025 and 30% from 2019. Here’s the breakdown:
| Film | Distributor | 3-Day Forecast | Change from Last Weekend | Projected Domestic Total | Theater Count |
|----------|-----------------|--------------------|-----------------------------|-----------------------------|------------------|
| Mercy | Amazon MGM | $12,800,000 | NEW | $12,800,000 | ~3,400 |
| Avatar: Fire and Ash | Disney (20th) | $7,700,000 | -47% | $378,800,000 | ~3,000 |
| The Housemaid | Lionsgate | $6,500,000 | -24% | $117,900,000 | ~2,900 |
| Zootopia 2 | Disney | $5,700,000 | -38% | $401,400,000 | ~2,900 |
| 28 Years Later: The Bone Temple | Sony | $4,500,000 | -64% | $21,100,000 | ~3,506 |
| The Lord of the Rings Trilogy (Re-Release) | Fathom | $4,500,000 | -45% | $12,700,000 | ~1,600 |
| Marty Supreme | A24 | $4,100,000 | -25% | $87,200,000 | ~1,700 |
| Primate | Paramount | $2,600,000 | -48% | $24,400,000 | ~2,500 |
| Anaconda | Sony | $1,700,000 | -49% | $62,500,000 | ~1,900 |
| Return to Silent Hill | Iconic Events | $1,500,000 | NEW | $1,500,000 | ~1,700 |
Controversial Question: With Mercy relying heavily on star power and visual spectacle, does it signal a shift in Hollywood’s strategy to prioritize marketability over critical acclaim? Or is this just another example of audiences craving escapism? Let us know your thoughts in the comments!
All forecasts are subject to change. Theater counts are estimates unless otherwise noted. For media inquiries, contact us.
